In a post last week, I pulled out data for the Las Vegas Strip to show an example about how as players we’ve helped increase casino wins by being OK with playing penny slots, which have a lower payback percentage, vs. higher denomination slots, which use to be more the norm.
This time, I’d like to shift my attention to the conversation that comes up a lot about downtown Las Vegas. It’s accepted by many that downtown Las Vegas, which is anchored by the casinos no Fremont Street, are a better gambling value than playing on the strip. Others believe that the growing popularity of downtown has led casinos there to water down the value. Luckily for us, we’ve got the data.
Penny Slot Comparison
First, let’s remind ourselves of what penny slots looked like on the strip as they came into popularity:
| Year | Penny Machine Count | Win Amount (000s) | % Change | Win Percentage |
| 2004 | 2,526 | 112,925 | 187.59% | 9.94% |
| 2005 | 4,358 | 250,627 | 123.94% | 10.38% |
| 2006 | 5,779 | 382,964 | 52.80% | 10.94% |
| 2007 | 6,984 | 498,577 | 28.78% | 11.40% |
| 2008 | 8,829 | 613,388 | 22.23% | 11.71% |
| 2009 | 10,237 | 658,276 | 7.32% | 11.60% |
| 2010 | 11,674 | 743,101 | 12.89% | 11.55% |
| 2011 | 13,189 | 885,761 | 19.20% | 11.63% |
| 2012 | 13,797 | 952,503 | 7.54% | 11.69% |
| 2013 | 14,978 | 1,024,535 | 7.56% | 11.90% |
| 2014 | 15,704 | 1,074,748 | 4.90% | 11.66% |
| 2019 | 15,556 | 1,420,573 | 8.34% | 11.59% |
Now let’s look at the same view for the downtown area:
| Year | Penny Machine Count | Win Amount (000s) | % Change | Win Percentage |
| 2004 | 958 | 31,418 | 273.17% | 9.86% |
| 2005 | 1,429 | 55,546 | 76.69% | 10.77% |
| 2006 | 1,701 | 71,170 | 28.13% | 10.85% |
| 2007 | 2,270 | 94,843 | 33.26% | 10.86% |
| 2008 | 2,619 | 107,594 | 13.44% | 11.21% |
| 2009 | 2,819 | 110,168 | 2.39% | 11.27% |
| 2010 | 2,931 | 109,726 | -0.40% | 10.97% |
| 2011 | 3,343 | 126,927 | 15.68% | 10.86% |
| 2012 | 3,676 | 144,737 | 14.03% | 11.07% |
| 2013 | 3,996 | 153,812 | 6.27% | 11.18% |
| 2014 | 4,293 | 153,389 | 6.23% | 11.20% |
| 2019 | 4,739 | 248,663 | 5.36% | 10.94% |
When it comes to the penny slots, a similar trajectory was followed downtown as on the strip. It does seem the downtown penny slots are slightly looser, to the tune of about a half a percent. For every $100 wagered over time, that’s an extra payout of 50 cents, on average. Heavier gamblers will certainly notice that, but smaller betters probably won’t see much difference either way.
Comparing Quarter Machines
Here’s the Las Vegas chart again when it comes to quarter machines:
| Year | Quarter Machine Count | Win Amount (000s) | % Change | Win Percentage |
| 2004 | 19,637 | 783,616 | -2.84% | 7.82% |
| 2005 | 16,741 | 725,291 | -7.25% | 8.09% |
| 2006 | 12,351 | 598,007 | -17.55% | 8.51% |
| 2007 | 9,900 | 513,234 | -15.68% | 8.87% |
| 2008 | 8,634 | 412,027 | -19.89% | 8.47% |
| 2009 | 7,169 | 297,491 | -27.80% | 8.18% |
| 2010 | 5,959 | 262,773 | -11.67% | 8.33% |
| 2011 | 4,884 | 232,120 | -11.66% | 8.29% |
| 2012 | 3,800 | 187,991 | -19.01% | 8.63% |
| 2013 | 3,228 | 171,611 | -8.71% | 8.63% |
| 2014 | 2,666 | 156,241 | -8.96% | 8.55% |
| 2019 | 1,722 | 144,379 | -2.94% | 10.86% |
Here’s the same data for downtown casinos:
| Year | Quarter Machine Count | Win Amount (000s) | % Change | Win Percentage |
| 2004 | 5,381 | 173,849 | -9.52% | 5.43% |
| 2005 | 4,277 | 147,280 | -15.08% | 5.49% |
| 2006 | 3,589 | 122,431 | -16.87% | 5.41% |
| 2007 | 2,858 | 105,892 | -13.51% | 5.62% |
| 2008 | 2,399 | 83,605 | -21.05% | 5.50% |
| 2009 | 2,083 | 71,218 | -14.82% | 5.37% |
| 2010 | 1,856 | 61,712 | -13.35% | 5.12% |
| 2011 | 1,691 | 57,728 | -6.46% | 5.17% |
| 2012 | 1,508 | 52,955 | -8.27% | 5.26% |
| 2013 | 1,413 | 48,143 | -9.09% | 5.20% |
| 2014 | 1,313 | 44,065 | -8.47% | 5.25% |
| 2019 | 740 | 34,066 | -6.27% | 6.90% |
Quarters is where the data gets interesting. First off, downtown seemed to creep better until the last couple of years, but still has a massive advantage over the strip of about 4 percent. That means $100 played on quarter machines downtown will last nearly twice as long as on the strip – that’s significant when it comes to value for money.
However, it’s important to remember the data is likely skewed by the video poker conditions downtown, which are significantly better than they are on the strip. Full pay video poker can be found in some casinos in downtown at quarters, and likely pulls the average significantly down. But even factoring that in, I would expect quarter machines across the board to be a better value based on the spread.
So, like everything, it’s not a universal statement, although you can fairly argue downtown is better than the strip even for penny slots, even if that is a meager victory.
Downtown moreso than the strip, you can likely stretch your money a lot longer on higher denomination machines thanks to the spread between the house win on higher denomination vs. lower denomination machines.
UPDATE 3/28/21: Since this piece was first written, an interesting quirk began to pop up where overall, strip slots were paying at a higher payback level than downtown slots. I examine that in this piece.
